The Japan Times - Asia stocks surge, oil falls on hopes of US-Iran truce deal

Oil markets have whipsawed this week as investors parse the chances of a breakthrough agreement between Washington and Tehran that could potentially resume normal shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Those hopes had been briefly dashed by new US military strikes on Iran Wednesday night, countered by Tehran's Revolutionary Guard's targeting of an American airbase in the region.

But by Thursday evening, negotiators had edged toward a deal to extend their fragile ceasefire for 60 days, though approval from President Donald Trump was still needed, US sources told AFP.

That news reversed a sluggish start for shares on Wall Street, with major indices closing higher on the day.

During Friday morning trading in Asia, the price of Brent crude was down 0.9 percent to around $93 a barrel, while primary US benchmark West Texas Intermediate shaved 1.1 percent to just below $88 a barrel.

Leading indices on stock exchanges in Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei surged by more than two percent, while Sydney was up by one percent.

Hong Kong's gains were more muted, while Shanghai's main benchmark had lost 0.4 percent.

Wall Street's advances on Thursday came despite several gloomy indicators, with the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rising in April to its highest since 2023 and first quarter economic growth being revised lower.

The combination of persistent inflation and slowing growth lowers the chances of interest rate cuts by the Fed, despite Trump's repeated calls for lower rates to boost the economy.

Still, "recession risks are easing as oil prices moderate and the probability of worst-case scenarios fades", wrote Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics.

"While reduced risks from the war have helped, the improvement in equity prices is mostly because of a robust earnings season. The driver is overwhelmingly AI-related capital expenditure," he said.

Global AI bullishness has driven a historic rally, this week pushing the market capitalisations of chipmakers Micron and SK hynix across the $1 trillion threshold.

In Europe, observers are awaiting a key gathering of leaders on Friday to discuss ways to address gaping trade deficits with China.

European Union commissioners will hold a debate on what the 27-nation bloc should do to defend the continent's companies from what Brussels describes as unfair competition from Chinese rivals.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent at $92.89 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.1 percent at $87.92 a barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 2.0 percent at 65,997.44 points

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 25,080.86

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 4,081.82

Euro/dollar: FLAT at $1.1647 from $1.1647 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3442 from $1.3441

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.30 from 159.25 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.65 pence from 86.66 pence

New York - DOW: UP 0.1 percent at 50,668.97 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.8 percent at 10,425.96 (close)

H.Nakamura--JT