The Japan Times - Bach's successor needs cool head to guide Olympics through stormy seas: experts

Seven candidates are vying to become the most powerful person in sport governance and replace Bach, who steps down after a stormy 12-year tenure when he had to contend with Covid, a Russian doping scandal as well as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"I believe this is the most significant Olympic election in nearly half a century," Michael Payne, a former head of IOC Marketing, told AFP.

"Some IOC members are even predicting that the very future of the Olympic Movement is at stake."

Payne, who in nearly two decades at the IOC was credited with renewing its brand and finances through sponsorship deals, said the Movement has "never been stronger" thanks in part to "perhaps the greatest Games ever" in Paris last year.

However, he added the "future outlook is fraught with risk."

"The IOC has not faced such a troubled geopolitical outlook in many years," the 66-year-old Irishman said.

"How the IOC navigates an ever more fractured political world, maintaining universality and how the IOC engages with a rapidly changing marketing and broadcast market will define the Movement’s future."

Martin Sorrell -- who founded advertising giant WPP and sat on the IOC's Communications Commission -- said the next president required a particular skillset as there is "immense volatility in the world".

With the next Summer Games in Los Angeles in 2028, Bach's successor will have to deal with the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump.

"The next IOC president is going to have to possess political savvy, tact, a strong temperament and a steady hand," Sorrell told AFP.

"The next president will have to be able to go to the White House and kiss the ring.

"He or she will also have to be cool under fire as there are three big geographical and geopolitical challenges ahead -- Russia/Ukraine, China and the Middle East with Iran."

- 'Big damn deal' -

For another former IOC marketing executive, Terrence Burns, the next president must meet the challenge of "politicians' predilections to use the Olympic Games as a political tool."

"I think the next IOC president must pass what I call the 'joint press conference test,' meaning, who can you envision sitting across or next to today's world leaders and holding their own?" he told AFP.

"The IOC must remain independent, and I think that is going to be more and more challenging."

While Payne believes Trump will be "incredibly supportive" of the LA Games, he envisages "sleepless nights" ahead for the IOC president.

"(Trump's) foreign policy and sudden executive orders counting down to the Games risk creating issues," said Payne.

"It is going to take special diplomatic and political skills and agility to ensure that all 205 nations turn up in LA in 2028 and protect the universality of the Olympic Movement."

Sorrell says the "two big buckets are geopolitics and technology" and "we are seeing it in spades here."

"I would not underestimate the political and technological shifts the new president will have to deal with," said the 80-year-old Englishman.

Burns, who since leaving the IOC has been a member of six victorious Olympic Games hosting bids, concurs with that.

"AI (Artificial Intelligence) is –- not probably, but is -– upending everything from education to governance," he said.

"A few years ago, the stable economic and geopolitical construct that ushered in the modern, peaceful world was a 'given' -– now it is not."

Burns add that this ups the ante for the challenges that lie ahead for Bach's successor.

"All this to say the next IOC president will face challenges as well as the pace of them that his/her predecessors could never have imagined," he said.

"So, yes, this election is a big damn deal in the Olympic world and for global sport in general."

Juan Antonio Samaranch Junior, Sebastian Coe and Kirsty Coventry are the frontrunners among the seven candidates to replace Bach.

S.Fujimoto--JT