The Japan Times - Latino Voters Defy ICE Fears, Turn Out in Record Numbers for Midterms

Civil society organizations had widely anticipated that the surge in anti-immigration enforcement across the United States would suppress voter participation among Latino communities. Contrary to those predictions, activists and data analysts report that aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations have instead galvanized political engagement, driving record-breaking turnout numbers in key battleground states.

Michael Mireles, a canvassing organizer with LUPE Votes, a get-out-the-vote organization operating in southern Texas, stated that local organizers have not encountered the anticipated fear of voting. "We have not seen here at the local level people worried to show up to vote because they think ICE is going to be there," Mireles told WIRED. "People are driven right now by their anti-ICE sentiment, and it's not stopping them from going to the polls."

This trend is supported by early voting data indicating that Hispanic and Latino voters are participating at rates far exceeding those of recent midterm elections. According to figures compiled by TargetSmart, a data analytics firm, 3.8 million Hispanic and Latino voters had cast ballots nationwide by October 27. This represents a substantial increase from the 2.35 million Hispanic and Latino voters who had voted by the same date in 2022.

In Texas, the shift is particularly pronounced among previously inactive voters. Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and adviser to TargetSmart, revealed that over 400,000 individuals who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election had already cast ballots in the current cycle. Of that group, 50 percent are Latino voters.

Michael McDonald, director of the University of Florida’s Election Lab, noted in an analysis that elevated turnout is visible beyond Texas. "Where large Hispanic communities exist in Texas, there is elevated turnout even above the blistering statewide pace," McDonald wrote. "Texas Hispanics are voting at higher levels than in past elections, as we can see in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina."

The data aligns with findings from the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the largest Latino civil rights organization in the country. In Texas’s 15th congressional district, which encompasses part of the Rio Grande Valley, LULAC reported that more than 12,000 early voters had not participated in previous elections. This influx of new voters could be decisive in a district where incumbent Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz won her 2022 victory by approximately 12,000 votes.

The surge in participation comes amid heightened uncertainty regarding federal enforcement strategies. For weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and the Trump administration have stated there are no plans to deploy ICE agents to polling locations on Election Day. However, President Donald Trump and senior officials, including DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Attorney General Todd Blanche, have repeatedly hinted at potential deployments.

Despite these ambiguities, organizers emphasize that the community’s response is one of defiance rather than retreat. Jill Garvey, executive director of States at the Core, a group focused on combating authoritarianism, explained that direct experiences with immigration enforcement have altered voter psychology. "Folks in these places that have really come face-to-face with some of the worst of the ICE violence are feeling like they understand that preparation is key," Garvey said. "They understand how traumatizing this is, how chaotic it is. I think they want to be as prepared as possible for any scenario."

Garvey added that confronting enforcement measures has reduced fear among some residents. "Facing down ICE already means these communities are frankly a little less scared," she said. "They have faced this already, and it's scary, but they also know that it's possible, and that the escalation can happen very, very quickly."

Organizers across multiple states report similar sentiments. In Arizona, Living United for Change reported that volunteers knocked on thousands of doors in a single week. Spokesperson César Fierros noted that 1,000 residents confirmed they had voted early or mailed their ballots. "That's a really good sign; that's something we have really never seen before," Fierros said. "People are saying 'Yes, there are threats out there, looming, but we're still going to show up regardless.'"

In Georgia’s DeKalb County, volunteers from the Save America Movement observed steady streams of voters throughout early polling hours. Co-founder and Executive Director Mary Corcoran reported that individuals repeatedly told her team that nothing would deter them from voting. "People know what this administration is trying to do, and they are refusing to be scared out of their own democracy," Corcoran said.

In Nevada, Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, who is seeking reelection against election denier Jim Marchant, emphasized the need for direct communication with voters. At a recent Latino community event, Aguilar adopted blunt language to motivate participation. "I did a Latino community event [and said] we have to actually fucking vote to tell these motherfuckers to fuck off," Aguilar told WIRED. "And when you get real with them about that, and they know that you're willing to stand up and fight for them, then they are willing to consider showing up to vote."

Suzanne Almeida, vice president of states with voting rights at Common Cause, echoed this perspective, urging organizers to acknowledge the power of electoral participation. "It’s important to lean into that defiance and tell voters that the opposition wouldn't be making it so difficult if there wasn't power in voting," Almeida said. "The threats are real, but so is the joy, and there is a real joy that comes in participating in democracy."

Liliana Rivera Baiman, an organizer with 614 ICE Watch and the Ohio Good Neighbor Network, described her approach as avoiding both pacification and exaggeration. "We said this is the reality of what's been happening," she explained. "These are examples of what we've seen. You've told us that it's really bad and that you don't want this to continue, so you have a choice. You're either going to show up and vote and make sure that your voice is counted, or you're going to stay home and continue to deal with this for the next two or three years, possibly longer. I really think that motivated a lot of people."

As Election Day approaches, the convergence of data and on-the-ground reporting suggests that immigration enforcement strategies have failed to suppress Latino voter turnout. Instead, they appear to have accelerated mobilization among both new and returning voters in states critical to the midterm outcome.

S.Yamada--JT