The Japan Times - 'Now or Never': Ethiopia influencers push for Eritrea invasion

The Ethiopian army has advanced right up to the border after repelling an offensive by rebels in the northern Tigray state, who were supported by Eritrean troops.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly said that securing a base on the Red Sea is a vital national objective for Ethiopia, which lost its coastline when Eritrea gained independence in 1993.

Some popular online influencers say the opportunity has arrived.

"The time for military action to secure access to the sea and end the Eritrean regime security threat is now for Ethiopia," Jawar Mohammed, a prominent political activist who recently launched the "Now or Never" campaign on social media, told AFP.

Jawar has more than 3.5 million Facebook followers and 1.3 million on TikTok, and thousands of Ethiopians have amplified his campaign, some sharing AI-generated images of themselves in Ethiopian military uniforms as a mark of support.

Jawar, 40, was once the leader of a protest movement that helped propel Abiy to power in 2018, but fell out with the prime minister over what he sees as an increasing shift to "one-man rule", and was jailed for two years before fleeing the country.

Despite years of criticising Abiy's government from an undisclosed new location in Europe, the war has brought Jawar back to the government's side.

"The Ethiopian government currently holds a military and technological advantage, supported by a highly motivated force capable of advancing its strategic goal of securing sea access," Jawar said, adding that delays could give Eritrea time to strengthen its defences.

Eliyas Kebede, 25, from Addis Ababa, also spends hours every day online, posting and creating AI-generated content to support the idea of invading Eritrea, including altered maps that show the Eritrean port of Assab as part of Ethiopia.

"I see myself as someone who tries to defend his country's narrative," he told AFP. He would like to see the "Ethiopian army advance to Asmara, oust the Eritrean government, and negotiate access to Assab."

Not everyone agrees with his approach.

"You are a warmonger, recklessly paving the way for mass deaths," said one Facebook commenter under an image Eliyas created of a large crowd of Eritreans warmly welcoming the Ethiopian army to Assab.

Eliyas says he does not feel guilty "at all".

"I believe my use of AI has been somewhat successful in boosting the morale of Ethiopian army supporters," he said.

- 'Rally the diaspora' -

With both Ethiopia and Eritrea reinforcing troop deployments along their border, the international community has expressed mounting concern about the risk of a new war.

Ethiopia has one of the harshest media climates in the world -- ranked 148th out of 180 countries in the Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders -- so many young Ethiopians rely heavily on social media for news.

Kjetil Tronvoll, a Horn of Africa specialist at Oslo New University College, said the online campaign would not sway the government's decision on whether to invade.

But it can "rally the diaspora and local communities around the need for regime change in Eritrea," he told AFP.

Yaya Beshir, a prominent online activist who has backed the campaign from Australia, posts regularly about invading Eritrea to more than 740,000 Facebook followers.

He acknowledged that forcibly seizing Eritrea's Assab port could trigger a regional security crisis, but is unconcerned.

"Ethiopia initially prioritised a peaceful solution, but after those efforts failed, it has now turned to military means," Yaya said.

T.Kobayashi--JT