The Japan Times - WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

Thanks to supply chain adaptations and the surge in artificial intelligence investments, the World Trade Organization now projects 3.9 percent growth in the volume of merchandise trade this year, up from 1.9 percent predicted in March.

The WTO is also forecasting 4.1 percent trade growth next year, up from the 2.6 percent predicted seven months ago.

Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2027, it added.

"The numbers reflect trade resilience in action," said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

"When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them," she said.

"Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI."

The WTO said that while disruptions of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had reduced energy supplies and raised prices of key energy products and fertilisers, most economies outside of the region remained resilient.

It also said supply chains had successfully adapted to disruptions in the energy, fertiliser and transport markets caused by the Iran war.

Meanwhile increased spending on semiconductors, data centres and digital infrastructure has raised demand for imported AI-enabling goods, providing a significant boost to global goods trade.

Trade in semiconductors, servers and other equipment essential to AI surged by 67 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

That alone accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, accelerating an expansion trend that was already robust in 2024 and 2025, the WTO said.

Global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to rise at least 30 percent this year, and current market forecasts indicate that investment spending in this sector will grow by another 10 to 20 percent in 2027, the WTO added.

However, the Geneva-based organisation said trade resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict.

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K.Inoue--JT