The Japan Times - Ex-PM says Putin cannot admit 'mistake' over Ukraine

Speaking to AFP in an interview, Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia's prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said he believed his former boss understood he had made a mistake by invading Ukraine in 2022 but would persist with the course he had set.

"He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit," Kasyanov, 68, said in Paris. "He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak."

The former prime minister said he was not convinced the war would end next year, adding that Putin was buoyed by high oil prices resulting from the US-Iran conflict and by disagreements between the United States and Europe over how to deal with the Kremlin on Ukraine.

"Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee," Kasyanov said. "He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine."

He warned that the coming winter could be particularly brutal for Ukraine, urging Western countries to apply "psychological pressure on the Kremlin" by closing ranks and urgently supply Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors to protect skies from intensifying Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Putin, a former KGB agent who turns 74 on Wednesday, has insisted that millions of Russians support Moscow's war. Last month his ruling party won a record supermajority in elections that critics said were tightly controlled, with Putin portraying the vote as a show of support for the hostilities.

- 'Sense of fatalism' -

Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022, lives in exile in Riga. In 2023, Moscow designated him a "foreign agent", a term reminiscent of the Soviet-era label "enemy of the people".

The Kremlin critic said he remained in contact with some members of Russia's ruling elite.

"Fear reigns there -- I am talking about the ruling class.

"Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does," he said.

"The difference lies in what kind of ending people want: some want the war to end in victory, some want it to end in Putin's defeat, and others simply want it to stop, regardless of the outcome."

Among ordinary Russians, Kasyanov said he saw "no grounds for a revolt", despite mounting war casualties and rising food prices.

"Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years," he said. "They have grown accustomed to putting up with it."

But a new wave of large-scale military mobilisations could trigger street protests, he added.

Speaking on the sidelines of a conference organised by the Paris-based association Russie-Libertes for anti-Putin exiles, Kasyanov said Russia had become "practically totalitarian" over the past few years.

"There is a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society," he said. "People are retreating into their own families, while negative feelings toward one another grow."

After being dismissed by Putin, Kasyanov joined the opposition and became one of the Kremlin's most vocal critics. Like many others, the start and duration of the war were a shock for him. Kasyanov told AFP in 2022 that the war could last about two years.

- 'Calculating cynic' -

After the Kremlin chief on Thursday said Russia would consider using "all types of weapons" if its exclave of Kaliningrad were attacked, Kasyanov said Western countries should not be intimidated by Putin's sabre-rattling.

"The West's and Europeans' biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears," Kasyanov told a packed audience in Paris.

"Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do."

Kasyanov suggested that Putin wants foreigners to believe that "he is a psychopath" when in reality he is simply a "highly calculating cynic".

"And he is raising the stakes in the game."

Kasyanov said that with an increase in "hybrid attacks" Putin was provoking the West into taking measures that he could then exploit.

"He is a provocateur," he added. "The only modus operandi he understands is the one he learned at the KGB academy. He told me that himself."

But, Kasyanov said, he did not believe Putin was preparing for open war with Europe.

"What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him."

S.Yamada--JT