The Japan Times - Niger mutiny suppressed, but questions remain over junta's cohesion

But many questions remain surrounding the events that posed one of the gravest challenges to the regime of General Abdourahamane Tiani, who himself came to power in a July 2023 coup.

- Who were the mutineers and what did they want ?

Was this a simple mutiny or an attempted coup? The mutineers never made a public statement, and little information has emerged regarding the extent of their movement and their objective.

Defence Minister Salifou Mody described the mutineers as a "group of soldiers who have broken with military regulations".

Several analysts said these soldiers had served on the front lines of the fight against jihadists in the south-west.

Bakary Sambe, director of the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute, pointed out that the poor conditions faced by soldiers was used to justify the 2023 coup.

According to Abdel Nasser Elyessa, a research fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies of the International Academy for Counter-Terrorism, this was a simple "uprising" within the army, without outside influence.

On Saturday evening, Niger's public television broadcast footage of dozens of soldiers, including women, who appeared to be surrendering with their hands raised, whilst others were sat in rows on the ground.

- What was Russia's role ? -

The mutineers captured the key Air Force Base 101, located within the international airport complex and home to the headquarters of Russia's Africa Corps in Niamey.

The junta sought assistance from its Russian Africa Corps allies, who helped to "suppress the mutiny", in the words of Russia's ambassador to Niamey, Viktor Voropaev.

To see Russia being called upon to resolve a problem within the military is "unprecedented" and undermines the "sovereignty" rhetoric put forward by the Sahel's military regimes, said researcher Elyessa.

According to him, the military junta would now prioritise protecting itself, at the expense of the fight against terrorism.

For Sambe, the situation reflects an "increasing and openly acknowledged security dependence" of Niger on Russia, which had previously been mainly engaged in the fight against jihadism.

After the 2023 military coup, Niger turned its back on France and sought military help from Russia.

It regularly accuses France -- its colonial ruler until 1960 -- of being behind every destabilising incident in the country, which Paris consistently denies.

On Saturday, state television immediately suggested French involvement, without providing evidence.

- The junta weakened or strengthened ? -

This was the third time this year Niamey had experienced violent unrest. But the January and June attacks on the international airport and military bases were launched by jihadists and were repelled within hours, the first one with assistance from the Africa Corps.

Now, the junta also faces internal threats that challenge the military's cohesion.

"In West Africa, military coups are becoming a structural risk," said Elyessa.

This is the first time General Tiani's regime has been shaken by such internal dissent since he came to power following his 2023 coup against civilian President Mohamed Bazoum.

While Tiani has been silent since the start of Saturday's attacks, he was able to count on the unwavering loyalty of his presidential guard, which repelled an assault on the presidential palace.

K.Abe--JT