The Japan Times - French poll shows Le Pen's biggest challenger may be hard left's Melenchon

Melenchon, the 75-year-old leader of France Unbowed (LFI), was more likely to reach the second round than centre-right former prime minister Edouard Philippe, the Harris-Interactive-Toluna poll commissioned by broadcasters M6 and RTL showed.

Philippe had been widely seen as the candidate best placed to reach the run-off and challenge Le Pen in the race to succeed President Emmanuel Macron after his second term in office.

Instead, the poll showed French voters left with a choice between the two extremes in the second round, with Le Pen still projected to ultimately win the presidency.

The findings underscore the increasingly polarised race to succeed Macron, as candidates from across the political spectrum jostle for position ahead of the election.

The poll showed that the divisive Melenchon would advance to the second round against Le Pen in three of five possible first-round scenarios, while in a fourth he would be neck and neck with Philippe.

Only one scenario would see Philippe overtake Melenchon party to reach the runoff.

Melenchon is polling at between 16 and 17 percent, up from 12 percent in April, according to the survey of more than 1,700 French adults.

Le Pen remains comfortably ahead, with between 35 and 38 percent of voting intentions, according to the poll.

She was projected to win regardless of her second-round opponent, securing 68 percent against Melenchon's 32 percent and 55 percent against Philippe's 45 percent.

Philippe's support has fallen three points over the past month to 17 percent in a scenario where he is the sole candidate from the centrist bloc.

A member of the team of another centrist candidate, former prime minister Gabriel Attal, told reporters the results showed Philippe was falling short "in his bid to act as a bulwark" against Melenchon and Le Pen.

Melenchon has previously run for France's top job three times, coming in fourth in the 2012 and 2017 elections, and third in the last polls in 2022.

T.Shimizu--JT