The Japan Times - Key developments as Ukraine war grinds through summer

- Kostyantynivka -

As its advances slow across the front line, Russia has concentrated its efforts on capturing the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka, once home to 78,000 people but now largely destroyed.

Russian forces broke into the city late last year, and are now present in its southern, eastern and western districts, according to analysts.

Russia is also launching infiltration operations in the city's north.

According to DeepState, an open-source intelligence group linked to the Ukrainian army, these infiltration operations may result in Russia effectively "absorbing" control of the city.

"The enemy is building an advantage in the Kostyantynivka sector, reinforcing it with constant aerial bomb strikes," DeepState reported.

Ukraine does "not have enough people to contain the pressure," it added.

Kostyantynivka is one of the few obstacles on the road to capturing Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last major urban areas in the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control.

- Ukrainian strikes -

Ukraine has meanwhile stepped up long-range strikes on Russia and its supply lines in occupied territories, according to analysts.

Since 2023, Ukrainian forces have launched systematic strikes on Russian oil refineries, export terminals and oil tankers in a bid to sap the revenues Moscow uses to fund the war.

This campaign of strikes has intensified significantly in recent months.

A Ukrainian long-range strike launched early Friday targeted two oil refineries in Russia's Tatarstan region, more than 1,000 kilometres (600 miles) from the front line.

The night before, Ukraine struck a military plant hundreds of miles east of Moscow using domestically produced "Flamingo" missiles, according to Kyiv.

And Ukraine twice fired drones at President Vladimir Putin's home city of Saint Petersburg earlier this month, on the opening and closing days of Russia's flagship economic forum there.

Putin said Friday that Kyiv's increasing drone strikes on Russia were aimed at sowing "confusion" and damaging the economy.

"They will not succeed," he said.

Russia has ramped up its strikes on Ukraine, breaking records in the number of drones and missiles launched.

- Crimea cut off -

Among the Ukrainian army's main targets in recent weeks have been routes connecting Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine's east and south to the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014.

Since early June, the Ukrainian army has targeted at least five bridges near the peninsula, forcing Russian-installed authorities to set up new routes.

Ukraine has intensified strikes on other roads in occupied areas, such as the R-280, which links Russia to Crimea, in order to disrupt the logistics of Russian forces.

This leaves the Crimea bridge -- built by Moscow -- as one of the peninsula's few supply links to Russia.

Ukraine has already attacked the bridge several times.

"Continued Ukrainian strikes against Russian GLOCs (ground lines of communication) will likely have cascading battlefield effects and may complicate Russian preparations for offensive operations," the US-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report Thursday.

T.Ueda--JT