The Japan Times - 'Looming' risk of nuclear arms race, UN proliferation meeting hears

In 2022, during the last review of the treaty considered the cornerstone of non-proliferation, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned humanity was "one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation."

On Monday he warned "the drivers" of nuclear weapons proliferation were accelerating.

"For too long, the Treaty has been eroding. Commitments remain unfulfilled. Trust and credibility are wearing thin. The drivers of proliferation are accelerating. We need to breathe life into the Treaty once more," Guterres said in opening remarks.

With global geopolitical friction only heightened since the last meeting, it was unclear what the two-week gathering at UN headquarters in New York could achieve.

"We should not expect this conference to resolve the underlying strategic tensions of our time... but a balanced outcome that reaffirms core commitments and set out practical steps forward would strengthen the integrity of the NPT," said Do Hung Viet, Vietnam's UN ambassador and president of the conference.

"The success or failure of this conference will have implications way beyond these halls and way beyond these next five years, the prospects of a new nuclear arms race are looming over us," he said.

The nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), signed by almost all the countries on the planet -- with notable exceptions including Israel, India, and Pakistan -- aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to promote complete disarmament, and to encourage cooperation on civilian nuclear projects.

The nine nuclear-armed states -- Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea -- possessed 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The United States and Russia hold nearly 90 percent of nuclear weapons globally and have carried out major programs to modernize them in recent years, according to SIPRI.

China has also rapidly increased its nuclear stockpile, SIPRI said, with the G7 raising the alarm Friday over Moscow and Beijing boosting their nuclear capabilities.

US President Donald Trump has indicated his intention to conduct new nuclear tests, accusing others of doing so clandestinely.

In March, France's President Emmanuel Macron announced a dramatic shift in nuclear deterrence, notably an increase in the atomic arsenal, currently numbering 290 warheads.

- 'Affront' to NPT -

"It is obvious that trust is eroding, both inside and outside the NPT," Seth Shelden of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, told AFP.

He questioned the likely outcome of the four-week summit.

Decisions on the NPT have to be agreed by consensus, with the previous two conferences failing to adopt final political declarations.

In 2015, the deadlock was largely due to opposition by Israel's arch-ally Washington to the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East.

In 2022, the impasse was due mainly to Russian opposition to references to Ukraine's nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia, occupied by Moscow.

This year's summit could fall on any number of stumbling blocks.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, Iran's nuclear program and the war there, non-nuclear states' fears over proliferation and North Korea's developing arsenal could all be deal-breakers.

The United States along with its allies Britain, the UAE and Australia spoke out at Iran's appointment as a conference vice president.

Washington's envoy to the meeting said conferring a leadership role on Tehran was an "affront" to countries that take the NPT "seriously."

Artificial intelligence could be a prominent issue as some countries call for all sides to keep human control over nuclear weapons.

S.Ogawa--JT