The Japan Times - UN chief warns against return to war as Gaza truce first stage due to end

Negotiations on the next stage have so far been inconclusive, leaving uncertainty over the fate of hostages still held in Gaza, and the lives of more than two million Palestinians who have been spared deadly bombardment for the past six weeks.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that a "permanent ceasefire and the release of all hostages are essential to preventing escalation and averting more devastating consequences for civilians."

The ceasefire took effect on January 19 after more than 15 months of war sparked by Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

Over the initial six-week phase, Gaza militants freed 25 living hostages and returned the bodies of eight others to Israel, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

A second phase is supposed to secure the release of dozens of hostages still in Gaza and pave the way for a more permanent end to the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation to Cairo, and mediator Egypt said on Thursday that "intensive talks" on the second phase had begun with the presence of delegations from Israel as well as fellow mediators Qatar and the United States.

But by early Saturday there was no sign of consensus as Muslims in Gaza marked the first day of Ramadan with coloured lights brightening war-damaged neighbourhoods.

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said the group rejected "the extension of the first phase in the formulation proposed by the occupation (Israel)".

He called on mediators "to oblige the occupation to abide by the agreement in its various stages".

Max Rodenbeck, of the International Crisis Group think tank, said the second phase cannot be expected to start immediately but he did not think the ceasefire will collapse.

- Hamas hostage video -

Hamas's armed wing released footage showing what appeared to be a group of Israeli hostages in Gaza, accompanied with the message: "Only a ceasefire agreement brings them back alive".

AFP was unable to immediately verify the video, the latest that militants have released of Gaza captives.

Netanyahu's office called it "cruel propaganda" but Israeli campaign group the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said the Horn family, two of whose members appear in the video, had given permission for the footage of them to be published.

Israeli-Argentinian Yair Horn was released on February 15 but his brother Eitan remains in captivity in Gaza.

"We demand from the decision-makers: Look Eitan in the eyes. Don't stop the agreement that has already brought dozens of hostages back to us," the family said.

The hostages forum held a new rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday evening in a bid to keep the focus on the remaining captives.

The preferred Israeli scenario is to free more hostages under an extension of the first phase, Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

A Palestinian source close to the talks told AFP that Israel had proposed to extend the first phase in successive one-week intervals with a view to conducting hostage-prisoner swaps each week, adding that Hamas had rejected the plan.

- Netanyahu's coalition worries -

Domestic political considerations are a factor in Netanyahu's reluctance to begin the planned second stage.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the remaining far-right faction in his governing coalition, has threatened to quit if the war is not resumed.

"The Israeli government could fall if we enter phase two," said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence for risk management consultancy Le Beck International.

Of the 251 hostages seized during Hamas's attack, 58 are still held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.

Hamas, for its part, has pushed hard for phase two to begin as planned.

"We affirm our keenness to complete the remaining stages of the ceasefire agreement," which would require a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, the group said in a letter to Arab heads of state due to meet in Cairo on Tuesday.

Israel has said it needs to retain troops in a strip of Gaza along the Egyptian border to stop arms smuggling by Hamas.

The truce has enabled greater aid flows into the Gaza Strip, where more than 69 percent of buildings were damaged or destroyed, almost the entire population was displaced, and widespread hunger occurred because of the war, according to the United Nations.

Y.Mori--JT