The Japan Times - Lebanon set to finally elect president after two-year vacancy

Army chief Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner, with analysts saying he might be the man to oversee the rapid deployment of the army to implement a truce in south Lebanon.

The tiny Mediterranean country has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022.

A dozen previous attempts to elect a president all failed amid deadlock in parliament between pro- and anti-Hezbollah blocs.

But a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah last autumn dealt heavy blows to the Shiite militant group, including the loss of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

In neighbouring Syria, Hezbollah has lost a major ally after rebels toppled President Bashar al-Assad last month.

With a fragile ceasefire in place in south Lebanon since late November, the 13th attempt at electing a new head of state kicks off at 11:00 am (0900 GMT).

In a country still scarred by a 1975-1990 civil war, the divided political elite usually agrees on a consensus candidate before any successful parliamentary vote is held.

International pressure has increased ahead of the session, including from French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who has been invited to attend the vote.

US envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut earlier this week urging the country's lawmakers to make the election a success.

A Saudi envoy also visited Lebanon on Wednesday for the second time in two weeks.

Lawmakers who met the Saudi and US envoys said they were given a strong impression that both countries backed Joseph Aoun.

Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Wednesday he was optimistic.

"For the first time since the presidency became vacant, I am pleased that God willing tomorrow we will have a president," he said.

- Another army chief? -

Under multi-confessional Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian.

Aoun would need a two-thirds majority -- at least 86 out of 128 lawmakers -- to be elected president.

If he or any other candidate fails to garner that many votes, parliament will hold a second round, where a simple majority, or 65 votes, will be sufficient to win.

A constitutional amendment would be needed for Aoun to become president.

The current text does not allow a person who has been in high office at any point during the past two years to take up the post.

If elected, Aoun would be Lebanon's fifth army commander to become president, and the fourth in a row.

Military chiefs too are, by convention, Maronites.

The new president faces daunting challenges, with a truce to oversee on the Israeli border and bomb-damaged neighbourhoods in the south, the east and the capital to rebuild.

Crucially, the successful candidate will also need to name a new government capable of carrying out the reforms demanded by international creditors to unlock a desperately needed financial bailout.

Since 2019, the country has been gripped by the worst financial crisis in its history.

The Hezbollah-Israel war has cost Lebanon more than $5 billion in economic losses, with structural damage amounting to billions more, according to the World Bank.

K.Yoshida--JT