The Japan Times - Stocks slide before US inflation, ECB meeting

Investors will be poring over US consumer price data to be released Wednesday after the last two inflation reports came in hotter than expected, delaying expectations of interest rate cuts. Then Thursday, the European Central Bank meets to discuss interest rate policy for the eurozone.

The March consumer price index (CPI) data may provide an indication whether or not the sticky inflation readings at the start of the year were due to seasonal factors, and how much possibility there is the US Federal Reserve could begin to cut rates starting in June.

"The Fed to some extent indicated seasonal factors might have kept inflation sticky in January and February, but that excuse might not fly much longer," said analysts at Charles Schwab.

The inflation news has the "ability to swing market sentiment, as does the earnings guidance that will be flowing out of the first quarter earnings reporting period," said Patrick J. O'Hare, an analyst at Briefing.com.

With US consumer prices picking up in January and February, the jobs market still strong and the US economy in rude health, traders have regularly rolled back their forecasts for monetary policy easing this year, and some are even contemplating no cuts before 2025.

"At the beginning of this year markets were pricing in six 25 basis point cuts: Now it’s nearer to two or three," said Trade Nation's David Morrison.

"There have been some FOMC members who feel that the recent stalling of the decline in inflation, together with robust economic data releases, means that it’s far too early to consider cutting rates," he said referring to members of the Fed's monetary policy-setting committee.

But Schwab analysts said investors may now be okay with that.

"Wall Street's bullish reaction to last week's blow-out March jobs report reflects the idea that investors could be getting comfortable with of one, two, or even no rate cuts this year as long as there's no sign of recession and earnings growth continues," said Schwab analysts in a note to clients.

Despite the news that the US economy created just over 300,000 jobs last month hurt the chances of a Fed rate cut in June but US stocks rose as investors saw it as a good indication for corporate earnings.

The end of the week sees the start of the US earnings season, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup up first. Next week will see some European luxury groups report, including LVMH, Richemont, Burberry and EssilorLuxottica.

While the ECB is almost certain to keep interest rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting, analysts are divided over whether it will wait for the Fed to cut first, or if it will be spurred into action by Europe's sputtering economies.

In Asia, the Tokyo market was boosted by a weaker yen, which helps exports but which is approaching the 152-per-dollar level at which many think could spark an intervention by Japanese authorities.

- Key figures around 1530 GMT -

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 38,678.11 points

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.5 percent at 5,177.42

New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 16,195.56

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 7,934.79 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.9 at 8,049.17 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 1.3 percent at 18,076.69 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 1.1 percent at 4,990.90 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 percent at 39,773.13 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.6 percent at 16,828.07 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,048.54 (close)

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.69 yen from 151.82 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0856 from $1.0859

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2669 from $1.2655

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.67 pence from 85.80 pence

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $89.90 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.8 percent at $85.74 per barrel

burs-rl/cw

Y.Hara--JT