The Japan Times - Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools

Prediction markets have never been bigger, or more contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US together posted a record $50.59 billion in combined volume in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the total. In the same month, New York City opened a probe into both leading venues, a Washington judge ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers in the state, and the CFTC began an internal review of so-called “mention markets.”

Amid that scrutiny, a simpler question has gone largely unexamined: when two venues list the same question, do they agree on the answer?

Often, they do not. On identically worded midterm markets tracked by Predictions.io, “Blue tsunami in 2026?” was priced at 44.5% on Polymarket and 36.0% on Kalshi. “Blue wave in 2026?” showed 82.5% against 74.0%. Both gaps are 8.5 percentage points — on questions whose wording is identical on the two venues. Across a sample of directly comparable binary markets live on more than one venue, the median gap was more than four points, and nearly half of the pairs differed by five points or more. (Prices as of 05:08 UTC on 28 August 2026; both venues’ live prices are shown side by side on Predictions.io.)

Those gaps matter to anyone quoting a single number. A market priced at 44.5% on one venue and 36.0% on another does not have one “market-implied probability” - it has two, and which one gets cited is arbitrary unless the reader is told both.

“A single venue’s price is a data point. The spread between venues is the information. When the two biggest markets in the world disagree by seven points on the same sentence, that disagreement is the story - and nobody who runs one of those markets is in a position to report it.” said spokesperson of Predictions.io

Predictions.io aggregates markets from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold, matching equivalent questions across venues so the same event can be compared directly. The platform currently tracks more than 9,700 event pages across 23 categories including US politics, economics, crypto, sport and geopolitics.

Alongside the comparison pages, Predictions.io publishes two free tools:

● Fee Calculator — enter any trade and see the fee, total outlay and effective all-in price on each venue, including Kalshi’s 0.07 × P × (1−P) taker formula and maker discount against Polymarket’s zero-fee standard markets.

https://predictions.io/tools/fee-calculator

● Odds Converter — convert American, decimal and fractional odds into implied probability and prediction-market prices, and see the vig-free line.

https://predictions.io/tools/odds-converter

A direct venue comparison is available at https://predictions.io/compare/polymarket-vs-kalshi, and live midterms markets at https://predictions.io/lobby/us-politics.

Predictions.io operates no market and takes no position in any contract. It is a data and comparison service, not an exchange, broker or investment adviser.

About Predictions.io

Predictions.io is an independent aggregator of prediction markets, bringing prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold into a single view so the same question can be compared across venues. It publishes free tools for traders and journalists, including a cross-venue fee calculator and odds converter.

Users can learn more about Predictions.io here: https://predictions.io/

Predictions.io socials: https://bio.site/predictions.io

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Source article: https://chainwire.org/2026/08/28/same-election-question-two-different-odds-predictions-io-launches-free-cross-venue-comparison-tools/

K.Hashimoto--JT