The Japan Times - Netanyahu ahead in Israel election, exit polls show

Exit polls showed Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving premier, could clinch a narrow majority and make a comeback with the anticipated backing of ultra-Orthodox Jewish and ascendant far-right parties.

However, the tally could shift as official results come in, and whoever is tapped to form a government will need support from multiple smaller parties to clinch a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat legislature.

If the first forecasts hold, that would end the short reign of an alliance of eight parties under centrist caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid that managed to oust Netanyahu last year before itself collapsing.

The margins appeared wafer-thin, as expected in the bitterly divided nation holding its fifth election in less than four years, but the early signs were positive for the 73-year-old leader of the Likud party.

Projections from three Israeli networks put Netanyahu's Likud on track for a first place finish, within 30 or 31 seats in the Knesset.

That number, combined with projected tallies for the extreme-right Religious Zionism alliance and the two ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties gave the bloc backing Netanyahu between 61 or 62 seats, the first projections showed.

But previous Israeli elections have shown that slight variations as votes are officially counted can dramatically alter the outlook.

- High turnout -

Lapid's Yesh Atid was on track for its expected second place finish, with projections giving it between 22 and 24 seats.

But the anti-Netanyahu bloc as a whole was short of a win, according to projections from major TV networks.

The head of the Israel Democracy Institute, Yohanan Plesner, said that "while the exit polls may indicate a trend, it is important to note that there have been discrepancies between these surveys and the actual results in past rounds of elections".

Tuesday's vote follows the collapse of a coalition that last year united eight disparate parties and ousted Netanyahu, ending his record run as prime minister -- but which ultimately failed to achieve political stability.

Netanyahu is on trial over corruption charges which he denies, but the case has not dented support among his unfailingly loyal base.

Amid the grinding political deadlock, concerns about voter fatigue were widespread, but in the end 71.3 percent of voters turned out, the highest rate since 2015, according to official figures.

- 'Coalition of extremists' -

Extreme-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir would be key to helping Netanyahu return to power with his Religious Zionism bloc on track for an estimated 14 seats, according to exit polls, double its current presence in parliament.

Ben-Gvir, who wants Israel to annex the entire West Bank, said his rise was fuelled by Israelis' security concerns.

"It's time we go back to being masters of our country," he said, reiterating his call for security services to use more force against Palestinians.

Justice Minister Gideon Saar, a former Likud heavyweight who broke with Netanyahu and now leads his own party, warned early Tuesday that Israel risked electing a "coalition of extremists".

The vote was held against a backdrop of soaring violence across Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank.

At least 29 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed across the two territories in October, according to an AFP tally.

While many candidates have cited security as a concern, none have pledged to revive moribund peace talks with the Palestinians.

The Palestinian prime minister, Mohammed Shttayeh, said the projected outcome highlighted "growing extremism and racism in Israeli society".

- Crossing the threshold -

Lapid was the architect of the last coalition, which for the first time brought an independent Arab party into the fold.

The unlikely alliance was made possible after Mansour Abbas pulled his Raam party from a united slate with other Arab-led parties, paving the way for him to join the coalition.

But Raam's pioneering support for a coalition was not viewed positively across Arab society, which makes up around 20 percent of Israel's population.

Raam was however projected to re-enter parliament, according to exit polls.

But the focus was on the Arab-led Balad party, which rejects any cooperation with Israeli governance.

The early count put Balad just short of 3.25 percent of the vote needed to secure the minimum four seats in parliament.

If they cross the line when all the ballots are counted, that would reshuffle the tally, potentially dealing a blow to Netanyahu's chances.

"If our numbers are even a bit higher than at 8:00 pm, which I think is the case, that will make us pass the electoral threshold," Balad chief Sami Abou Shahadeh told Israel's Channel 11.

S.Ogawa--JT