The Japan Times - Climate summit narrows ambition on fossil fuels, alarming greens

With hours to go before the official end to the 13-day UN summit, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber released a new draft agreement aimed at bringing onboard the nearly 200 countries, which include Saudi Arabia and other producers seeking to preserve their economic lifeblood.

After an earlier draft listed the landmark option of a "phase-out" of oil, gas and coal, the new text draft focuses on "reducing" their production and consumption in order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Jaber -- whose role as president of the UAE national oil company has drawn suspicion from environmentalists -- called his text a step forward and said he still sought "high ambition" on the fossil-fuel language.

"We have made progress but we still have a lot to do," Jaber said in a plenary session.

But small island states that fear that climate change threatens their very existence accused the Emiratis of ignoring their interests.

"The Republic of the Marshall Islands did not come here to sign our death warrant," said its negotiator John Silk, demanding an end to fossil fuels.

Environmentalists said the text was woefully inefficient in checking warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- the goal blessed by the 2015 Paris accord to avoid the worst ravages of climate change including worsening storms and droughts and rising sea levels.

"This disastrous new draft is way less ambitious than the last version. This is disappointing," said Fernanda Carvalho of the WWF conservation group.

The text does not go so far as to demand actions on fossil fuels, only presenting measures that nations "could" take.

"A list of crucial actions has become a menu to pick and choose from," said analyst Dave Jones of Ember's Global Insights Lead.

"And the main course doesn't even include a fossil-fuel phase-out."

- No 'phasing out' -

Negotiators who have spent 12 days in the glitzy metropolis built on petrodollars were expected to work through the night, with few expecting an agreement in time by the official close on Tuesday.

French negotiator Agnes Pannier-Runacher, heading into talks among European Union members, said the bloc would work for an ambitious text.

"Some changes have been encouraging but others seem to me to be a retreat from our expectations," she said.

The draft agreement says countries can take action that includes "reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science".

On coal, the dirtiest major form of energy, the text lists limitations on "new and unabated coal power" -- meaning going ahead with potential projects that use new carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

The text does list an option of "phasing out" of "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" that encourage "wasteful consumption".

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called earlier Monday for negotiators to show "maximum ambition and maximum flexibility".

"We are in a race against time," Guterres told reporters. "It's time to go into overdrive to negotiate in good faith."

Guterres called on negotiators to have a "single-minded focus on tackling the root cause of the climate crisis -- fossil fuel production and consumption".

COP28 is taking place at the end of the hottest year on record with scientists believing it may be the warmest in more than 100,000 years.

Climate-related disasters in 2023 have included drought in the Horn of Africa and severe wildfires in Canada, Greece and Hawaii.

- US-China unity -

In a rare display of unity between rival powers, China and the United States, the world's two largest emitters, have largely been cooperating to advance language on a phase-out, with veteran US negotiator John Kerry pushing for a success as he celebrated his 80th birthday.

The latest draft deal includes language similar to a joint US-China statement released last month.

The COP28 deal calls for accelerating the deployment of zero and low-emissions technologies, including renewables, nuclear power and CCS "so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems".

Critics say carbon capture technology remains too expensive and would never be enough on its own to meaningfully reduce emissions.

K.Tanaka--JT