The Japan Times - 'Anora' vs 'Conclave'? Oscars set for 'nail-biter' showdown

But "Anora" and "Conclave" appear to be locked in a tight two-horse race to win best picture at the Oscars on Sunday.

With a twisty awards season rocked by Los Angeles wildfires and a racist tweet scandal reaching its climax, the battle for Hollywood's ultimate prize is too close to call.

"I don't think anyone can honestly tell you," said The Hollywood Reporter's awards expert Scott Feinberg.

"Both sides are feeling more nervous than confident... that should be an indicator that this is really a nail-biter," he told AFP.

Sean Baker's "Anora" -- about a New York exotic dancer who weds a wealthy Russian playboy, only to learn that her dream marriage is a nightmare illusion -- is the year's most awarded film to date.

The low-budget indie won the Cannes festival's Palme d'Or last May, and has accrued top prizes from Hollywood directors, producers, writers and critics.

But "Conclave" -- a film about the secretive and cutthroat election of a new Catholic leader, lent an uncanny timeliness by the real-life Pope Francis's ailing health -- appears to have won over many late voters.

Released by NBCUniversal's prestige label Focus Features, with an impeccable A-list cast led by Ralph Fiennes, it earned top honors from Britain's BAFTAs, and the Hollywood actors' SAG Award for best cast.

Almost every surprise best picture Oscar winner in recent times -- from "Shakespeare in Love" and "Crash" to "Parasite" and "CODA" -- first won the top SAG prize, said Feinberg.

"I personally put 'Conclave'... it's just more of a traditional, classic 'best picture' film," one Oscars voter told AFP.

The voter, anonymous because Academy members cannot reveal their picks, also expressed admiration for "The Brutalist," a saga about a Hungarian Jewish architect making a new life in the post-WWII United States.

- Oscar records -

Adrien Brody, who plays the titular gifted architect and Holocaust survivor in "The Brutalist," has been the presumed favorite to win best actor for months.

Brody has won the prize previously, for 2002's "The Pianist." If he prevails again, he'd join an elite club of double winners including Marlon Brando and Jack Nicholson.

But Timothee Chalamet earned wide admiration for his pitch-perfect performance as a sardonic young Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown," won the Screen Actors Guild Award over Brody, and could prove a spoiler.

At just 29, he arguably has the most star power of any of this year's nominees, and would beat Brody's record as the category's youngest-ever winner.

Brody is "still the safer pick," said Feinberg -- assuming enough Academy voters made it through his film's three-and-a-half-hour runtime.

Several fellow Academy members "were upset that they were locked in a room for that amount of time," said the Oscars voter.

- 'Comeback story' -

There could be an even younger winner on the actress side, if a groundswell of support for "Anora" carries its star Mikey Madison, 25, to the Oscars stage.

But she will have to get past Demi Moore, the 1990s megastar who had enjoyed a sparkling career renaissance thanks to gory body horror flick "The Substance."

"Hollywood loves a comeback story," said the Oscars voter.

It seems that neither woman need fear their fellow nominee Karla Sofia Gascon, of musical narco-thriller "Emilia Perez."

Gascon, the first openly trans acting nominee, saw her hopes collapse after years-old racist tweets about Islam, China and American George Floyd, a Black man who died at the hands of US police in 2020, went viral.

The controversy also sunk Netflix's chance of its first best picture win, though co-star Zoe Saldana remains the favorite to win for best supporting actress.

Best supporting actor appears to be similarly locked. Kieran Culkin has won almost everything going this year for his portrayal of a charismatic but troubled cousin on an ancestral road trip through Poland in "A Real Pain."

- 'Wicked' stars -

The ceremony itself, hosted by Conan O'Brien on his Oscars debut, is expected to be an emotional affair.

It will honor firefighters who battled blazes that killed at least 29 people and devastated Los Angeles in January.

Hoping to capitalize on a recent ratings uptick -- last year's gala featured a memorable "Barbie"-themed musical showstopper -- producers have enlisted "Wicked" stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo to perform.

For the first time, the gala will stream live on Hulu, as well as on US network ABC, and in more than 200 territories worldwide.

The 97th Oscars begin Sunday at 4:00 pm (0000 GMT Monday).

T.Shimizu--JT