The Japan Times - Fire-hit Hollywood awaits Oscar nominees, with 'Emilia Perez' in front

Voting deadlines had to be extended this month, as the US entertainment capital and home city of the Academy Awards was devastated by multiple blazes that have killed more than two dozen people and forced tens of thousands to flee.

Nominees will be unveiled virtually, and in subdued circumstances, as a town that typically fixates on the Oscars race has more pressing matters to handle.

Even so, the glitzy Oscars ceremony itself is still set for March 2, and the stars and studios who have spent months and millions of dollars campaigning will learn if they have made the coveted final shortlists.

"Emilia Perez," French director Jacques Audiard's Mexico-set musical, in which a narco boss transitions to life as a woman and turns her back on crime, seems certain to pick up best picture and multiple song, score and sound nods.

"It's going to rack up a big number," Pete Hammond, awards columnist for movie trade outlet Deadline, told AFP.

Nominations for its star Karla Sofia Gascon -- who would become the first openly trans acting nominee -- and Zoe Saldana appear set too.

Their more famous co-star, Selena Gomez, has been criticized for her Spanish-language dialogue and could miss out.

Even so, the Netflix film could become the most nominated non-English-language movie ever -- a record held by "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and "Roma," each with 10.

"It's so strong in all of the categories that it could get nominated in," said Hammond.

Competition atop the nomination list will likely come from Vatican thriller "Conclave," epic immigrant saga "The Brutalist" and show-stopping musical adaptation "Wicked."

Sci-fi sequel "Dune: Part Two," indie darling "Anora" and Bob Dylan biopic "A Complete Unknown" are also expected to do well.

- 'Political statement' -

Academy Award nominations are fiercely contested by Hollywood's biggest stars, and this year's race for best actress appears especially intense.

A-listers like Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman went all-out with their performances in "Maria" and "Babygirl," respectively, but many pundits believe they will miss out.

Comeback queen Demi Moore charmed the industry with her Golden Globes acceptance speech for body horror-satire "The Substance," and seems a lock for a nomination along with Gascon and "Anora" star Mikey Madison.

"It's those other two slots that could go any which way," said Hammond, pointing to Brazil's Fernanda Torres ("I'm Still Here") and Britain's Marianne Jean-Baptiste ("Hard Truths") as popular alternates.

"Wicked" star Cynthia Erivo is also in the mix.

For best actor, Adrien Brody ("The Brutalist") is a firm favorite, along with Timothee Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown") and Ralph Fiennes ("Conclave").

This year could finally bring first Oscar nods for rom-com veteran Hugh Grant, who is radically different in horror "Heretic," and former 007 Daniel Craig, for literary adaptation "Queer."

Or the Academy could ruffle a few feathers in the new White House by selecting Sebastian Stan for his unsettling transformation into a young Donald Trump in "The Apprentice."

The movie drew threats of lawsuits from Trump's attorneys, particularly for a scene in which the new US president is shown raping his wife.

"It could be a political statement" to nominate Stan, said Hammond.

- 'Lost homes' -

The Los Angeles wildfires have cast a somber shadow on this year's Oscars, and the chaos and displacement they caused could also directly impact Academy voting patterns, Hammond said.

"We know so many members that have lost homes (in Los Angeles)... some will just not have voted" at all, said Hammond.

He predicted the upheaval at home could increase the influence of the Academy's many overseas voters, who often opt for more artsy fare from outside of the US-centric Hollywood orbit.

"They're the furthest away from it, and it will be business as usual for that group," he said.

"Though I don't particularly think 'Emilia Perez' needs any help," Hammond added.

The nominations announcement will begin Thursday at 5:30 am (1330 GMT) in Los Angeles.

S.Yamada--JT