The Japan Times - NFL Week 1 Predictions: Dave Blezow’s Best Bets Against the Spread for Every Game

Dave Blezow has published his complete set of NFL Week 1 predictions against the spread in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide, offering a final look at his handicapping career before retirement. As the publication enters Season 33 of its betting guide, Blezow notes that this will be his last season providing picks, after which he plans to retire to the golf courses, tiki bars, and poker rooms of the Florida Suncoast.

Blezow’s tenure in New York sports journalism dates back to Week 1 of 1994, when he picked his first game as Aaron Glenn made his debut for the Jets. He humorously observes that while he once competed with figures like Glenn and former coach Pete Carroll, he is now competing with them for "most gray hairs." Despite the impending end of his run, Blezow remains confident in his selections, identifying the Baltimore Ravens as his "Lock of the Week" for the opening round.

A significant portion of Blezow’s analysis focuses on the New York metropolitan area teams and their dramatic coaching transitions. He expresses strong belief that John Harbaugh will immediately raise the competitive floor for the New York Giants in his first season in East Rutherford. However, Blezow cautions against overestimating the team's immediate prospects, noting that the Giants were perilously close to the bottom of the league last season, holding the No. 1 overall pick with only two games remaining.

While acknowledging that the Giants had close calls against quality opponents like the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears, Blezow points out that their record could have been significantly worse due to a colossal blown lead against the Denver Broncos. He questions whether an infusion of Harbaugh’s toughness and Super Bowl-winning experience is sufficient for an immediate jump, reminding readers that Harbaugh’s own reputation with the Ravens includes "colossal blown leads." Furthermore, Blezow suggests that while the coaching change benefits 52 of the Giants' players, it may not be ideal for quarterback Jaxson Dart, who had developed a rapport with former coach Brian Daboll. He warns that if the Giants’ pass rush fails to pressure Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, the opener could be a "downer" for the Harbaugh era.

For the New York Jets, Blezow highlights the psychological pressure on head coach Aaron Glenn, who faces scrutiny after being fired by the Giants and is now coaching the Titans. The Jets get the first look at their former coaching duo of Robert Saleh and Daboll in Tennessee. Blezow notes that Glenn’s job security is tied to a strong start, especially with difficult matchups against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and Chicago Bears looming early. He expresses interest in seeing how Geno Smith performs with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and a strong offensive line, while also anticipating pressure from Titans defensive ends David Bailey and Will McDonald.

In other key matchups, Blezow analyzes the Chicago Bears, whose success last season was heavily reliant on a plus-22 turnover differential fueled by 33 takeaways. He argues that such extreme statistical anomalies rarely carry over to the next season. However, he remains optimistic about rookie safety Dillon Thieneman’s potential impact and believes the offense will improve in second-year coach Ben Johnson’s system.

For the Detroit Lions, Blezow identifies them as his NFC Super Bowl contender. Despite the absence of secondary stars Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, he expects Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown to be highly effective. He notes that while the New Orleans Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave, Tyson is currently on injured reserve.

The Indianapolis Colts face a daunting test against the Baltimore Ravens. Blezow expresses skepticism about quarterback Daniel Jones’ ability to return to form so quickly after tearing his Achilles in December of the previous year, calling it a potential medical miracle if he succeeds. He views the spread as suspiciously light, possibly due to the Colts’ strong 8-2 start to the 2025 season, but believes Lamar Jackson and Kyle Hamilton will provide a brutal first test.

In the Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game, Blezow notes that the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to injury does not significantly downgrade the Falcons’ prospects, as Cooper Rush is a capable replacement. He highlights the age disparity in the quarterbacks, noting that Mike McCarthy coached Aaron Rodgers 20 years ago, underscoring how old Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has become. Blezow suggests the extra half-point in the spread might be decisive.

Blezow names the Buffalo Bills as his overall Super Bowl winner. He anticipates a significant improvement under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, replacing Sean McDermott, whom he believes may have held Josh Allen back slightly as a defensive coach. The Bills face a tough challenge from the Houston Texans, particularly if C.J. Stroud performs better than he did in the playoffs.

Regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Blezow sees value in backing them against the Cincinnati Bengals, noting that fading the Bengals always carries risk but the price is attractive. He highlights the health of Bucky Irving and Tristan Wirfs, Baker Mayfield’s new contract, and the potential impact of rookie wide receiver Ted Hurst III alongside Emeka Egbuka.

He advises against trusting the Jacksonville Jaguars at their current level of favoritism, pointing out that the Cleveland Browns have strengthened their roster with Jared Verse in the Myles Garrett trade and drafted wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. He also notes that new Jaguars coach Todd Monken is worth a shot at this price.

For the Philadelphia Eagles, Blezow identifies this as the week to get their offensive line fully healthy. He anticipates a productive connection between Makai Lemon and DeVonta Smith with Saquon Barkley, though he admits Jayden Daniels and Sonny Styles worry him at the current number.

Blezow expresses skepticism about the Miami Dolphins’ early-season performance, finding it hard to believe they are "tanking" before the season starts with a new coach and free-agent quarterback. He reluctantly lays points for them, expecting Kirk Cousins and center Tyler Linderbaum to bring stability to the Las Vegas Raiders offense, while keeping an eye on rookie running back Mike Washington Jr.

He advises against laying too many points in Week 1 for the Arizona Cardinals, noting that their offensive upgrades were hampered by guard Chase Bisontis being on injured reserve and running back Jerimiyah Love dealing with ankle issues. Similarly, he cautions against overvaluing the Green Bay Packers’ previous struggles against Micah Parsons, noting those losses came against top teams. However, Josh Jacobs’ suspension creates a tough spot if Kyler Murray performs well.

Finally, Blezow looks at the Denver Broncos, where Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes are returning from injuries with dynamic help in Jaylen Waddle and Kenneth Walker, respectively. He believes Denver’s "diabolical" defense makes taking the points the smart play.

Blezow, one of the longest-tenured NFL handicappers at The Post, won the publication’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.

S.Suzuki--JT