The Japan Times - US Midterms Put Control of Congress and Key States at Stake

US voters will choose House members, senators, governors and state officials on November 3 in elections that could alter the balance of power in Washington.

Early voting has been underway for weeks ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, when US voters will elect members of the House of Representatives and Senate and governors in states across the country. Held in the middle of each four-year presidential term, the midterms by definition do not involve the president. But for anyone who thinks they lack drama or importance this year, consider these two statistics ...

over 100mn people likely will cast ballots in this year’s midterm voting, if turnout is anything like the previous midterm in 2022; and as of October 12, a record $3.8bn had been spent on political advertisements that have been aired so far. Top spending is in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, as reported by AdImpact, which tracks the activities.

Elon Musk alone has spent about $366mn to support Republicans, as reported by campaign finance records. Still, midterms generally attract fewer voters than the higher-profile presidential races. over 155mn votes were cast in the 2024 presidential election, for example.

CONTROL OF CONGRESS AT STAKE

Plenty is at stake in this midterm election as Democrats try to win majority control of the US Congress. at present, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, where there are two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with Republicans. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to win control.

Democrats also are fighting to win the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. They must net four additional seats to get control. Ten races, among them those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could decide the outcome.

CAN MIDTERMS AFFECT THE PRESIDENCY?

Midterm elections generally are dangerous territory for the political party that holds the White House and/or Congress. For 2026 that means that President Donald Trump and his Republicans controlling the US Senate and House of Representatives are in perilous political positions.

The midterms can be an opportunity for voters to, in effect, grade the president’s performance, and possibly trigger White House course corrections if they receive low marks.

Midterm election results also can give aspiring presidential candidates hints on how to tailor their messages to voters in the next presidential campaign, which in this case is set to be in 2028.

WHAT ARE POLLS SHOWING?

Approval of Trump’s performance is at an all-time low of 32%, as reported by a September Reuters/Ipsos poll. Domestic issues like rising consumer prices are likely to have an impact on the outcome of many races and could erode support for Republicans. At the same time, there is evidence that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans. If early voting trends continue it could point to a Democratic win in November.

There are also signs that Latino voters who veered to Trump in 2024 might be returning to Democrats because of frustration over the economy and some of Trump’s immigration enforcement tactics. nevertheless, a landslide for the Democrats is far from assured. Republicans could benefit from continued skepticism towards Democrats, a Republican spending advantage on campaigns, and fears from moderate voters over some primary wins by left-wingers.

RECENT MIDTERM HISTORY

Recent history tells the story of the shockwaves a midterm election can produce.

In the 2010 midterms, during the Democratic presidency of Barack Obama, Republicans scored major victories, winning 63 additional House seats amid an underperforming US economy and weak support for Obama’s landmark healthcare reform legislation. Democrats lost their majority. In the Senate, they held onto control despite losing six seats.

The Republican wave was a “shellacking,” Obama lamented at the time. He subsequently faced Republican demands for significant reductions to non-defence spending.

Democrats returned the favour in 2018, with Trump in the White House. They gained a net total of 40 House seats, but lost a net two Senate seats. This year’s elections also have races for governors in 39 of the 50 states and voting in almost every state for seats in their state-level legislative bodies. at present, Republicans control 55% of state legislative seats across the country, while Democrats hold 43.8%, as reported by Ballotpedia.

WHO is set to be SPEAKER?

If Democrats manage to win the House, the next speaker -- second in line for the presidency after the vice president -- is likely to be Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York. He is at present the House Democratic leader.

Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the powerful office, would be in a position to direct House committees to launch investigations into a range of controversial activities by Trump and his associates. Jeffries repeatedly stated Democrats would look into what he has called “unprecedented levels of corruption” during the Trump administration.

Jeffries also would steer Democrats’ legislative priorities through the House. He stated Democrats would focus on making healthcare, groceries, housing, energy and other costs more affordable.

A Republican win, on the other hand, would ensure that the speaker’s gavel remains in that party’s hands, either with current speaker Mike Johnson or whichever Republican prevails if he is challenged for the job. Republican priorities are likely to be centred on additional tax cuts, huge increases in defence spending, and deeper social safety net reductions, building on Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill”.

Among the most-watched House races are Republican Representative Mike Lawler’s bid for reelection to a New York district that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris won in her 2024 presidential campaign and an open seat in a Nebraska swing district where farmers and truckers face sharply higher fuel prices as a result of the US war against Iran.

Also high on Democrats’ list of House seats they hope to take from Republicans are two in Pennsylvania and one in New Jersey. Hovering over all of this are questions over whether Trump will try to meddle in the elections, which are administered by the 50 individual states.

Since 2020, he has repeatedly insisted there is widespread cheating in US elections, despite a lack of evidence. State election officials and Democrats in Congress have been preparing for possible legal challenges to any moves by his administration to try to intervene.

M.Sugiyama--JT