The Japan Times - Germany's Merz 'shocked' by far-right state win but vows to stay course

"This is the heaviest electoral defeat the (CDU party) has suffered in years, in decades," said a crestfallen Merz after Sunday's vote in the ex-communist eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

"Naturally, this will have to have consequences."

His centre-right CDU scored just 17 percent against almost 44 percent for the anti-immigration, Russia-friendly and pro-Trump Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has vowed a "remigration and deportation offensive" targeting irregular migrants.

AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel in a blistering attack on the morning after charged that "no chancellor before has been as unpopular as Friedrich Merz" and labelled him "a major burden" for Germany.

The AfD's triumphant lead candidate in the state vote, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, said that voters had sent "a signal to Berlin" and mockingly thanked the 70-year-old Merz for being "a very good campaigner" for the AfD.

Siegmund also said that -- after his party narrowly missed an absolute majority -- it was now reaching out to other parties and individual MPs to build a stable ruling coalition.

"It is a very clear government mandate," Siegmund said. "It could hardly be clearer."

Sven Schulze, the defeated CDU state premier who continues as caretaker leader for now, acknowledged that now "we are the opposition -– the mandate to govern now lies with the AfD".

- 'Unbroken determination' -

Merz conceded his own low poll ratings had played a role in his party's loss: "I know that I personally was a constant topic in this election campaign," he said.

"We must try -- I myself included -- to reach people more effectively, including in the full range of their emotions."

But he also vowed that "my determination to continue on the path of reform is unbroken", saying this was needed for the sake of "our children and grandchildren".

On Germany's support for Ukraine, he stressed he would "not budge a single millimetre from my fundamental conviction that we must defend our freedom against Russia as well".

The AfD's election success was greeted by its supporters abroad, among them US tech tycoon Elon Musk who on X sent the German message "Gut gemacht!", or well done.

While Sunday's result sparked jubilation among the AfD's followers, the prospect of the first far-right government taking charge of a German state since World War II has deeply unsettled other parties, many migrants and minority groups.

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is labelled a "right-wing extremist" group by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, and some of Siegmund's staff are former members of a since-banned neo-Nazi organisation.

- 'No need to be afraid' -

Weidel again slammed the government for allowing "illegal migration, open borders, skyrocketing rates of crime committed by foreign nationals, and a refusal to carry out deportations".

"I'm scared," said a 28-year-old man who came from Afghanistan in 2015 and who asked not to be named, after reading news of the AfD's victory on TikTok.

"I have two children here," he told AFP in the Saxony-Anhalt state capital of Magdeburg. "What will happen if I have to leave?"

AfD national co-leader Tino Chrupalla sought to dispel such fears, saying that "no one needs to be afraid of us".

He told Deutschlandfunk radio that his party is not against people with a migrant background, "provided they are integrated, speak German ... and contribute to the economy here".

Merz stressed that German law and its constitution apply nationwide and that "this applies to all immigration and foreign policy".

- 'Soldier on' -

Pressure has grown on Merz not just from the far-right, but also from within his coalition which has struggled to reboot a stagnant economy and is divided over social policy, especially pensions.

The AfD, founded in 2013 as a eurosceptic protest party, soon shifted focus by railing against the open-door refugee and migrant stance of former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merz has vowed to return the CDU to its conservative roots and launched a crackdown on irregular immigration while trying to turn the economy around, but his poll ratings have remained low.

Sunday's election outcome "delivered a huge blow" to Merz and his government which "can throw the CDU into significant turmoil", wrote Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.

Still, he said it was more likely than not that Merz and his coalition "will soldier on" throughout their term till 2029, given the lack of a good alternative.

"Replacing Merz as head of the coalition would be a high-risk adventure from which his party will probably shy away," he wrote.

S.Fujimoto--JT