The Japan Times - Votes may 'melt like snow': Reform, Greens eye Labour UK bastion

The Manchester suburb of Gorton and Denton has been a Labour stronghold for decades.

But Nigel Farage's anti-immigrant Reform UK party and left-wing populists the Greens are hopeful of exploiting widespread disaffection with Starmer, already raising doubts about his longevity.

"I'm not voting for Labour this time because they're absolutely useless," said long-time Labour voter Sue, who has a homemade Vote Reform UK poster in her window for Thursday's parliamentary by-election.

Richard, a window cleaner, has never voted before, but also plans to cast his first ballot for Reform, which is currently soaring in national polls due to the high cost of living and anger over small boat arrivals of migrants.

"Immigration is the main reason," said the 43-year-old, beside the pool tables at Denton working men's club, who like many asked not to give his full name.

"Denton used to be a place that you knew everybody and now you just don't... I'm just worried about the people that are walking around here that I don't know," he said, also citing perceived pressure on housing and hospital waiting lists.

Matt Goodwin is Reform's candidate in the vote triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne on health grounds.

Labour comfortably won the seat with more than 50 percent of the vote at the July 2024 general election that swept Starmer to power, ahead of Reform on 14 percent, and Greens on 13 percent.

- 'Caught in the middle' -

But Starmer's approval ratings have slid since then, as insurgent parties bite into the support of Labour and the country's other traditional main party, the Conservatives, still reeling from being ousted from power after 14 consecutive years.

A poll of 452 people published by Omnisis on Friday suggested the Greens could win the seat with 20 percent, ahead of Reform on 17 percent, with Labour third at 15 percent.

"Talking to customers in the back of the cab, you can see allegiances switching," said Steve, 63, a taxi driver.

"You've got people who were Labour voters all their life, some going to Reform ... and then you've got the people who are voting for Greens who basically think that's the only alternative they've got."

The constituency represents Labour's dilemma nationally: how to tack right on immigration to try to counter Reform while not alienating its traditional left-wing base.

According to Oxford University political scientist Geoffrey Evans, Labour is "caught in the middle", vulnerable on both flanks amid an ailing economy.

"We may have entered an era where there is populist appeal on left and right as the centrist parties have failed to meet the public's goals," Evans said.

At the Green Party's local campaign headquarters, spirits are high.

According to the party, member numbers have tripled to 190,000 since populist Zack Polanski became party leader in September.

"It is going to be so close between us and Reform," Green party hopeful, Hannah Spencer, 34, told AFP.

- 'Like watermelons' -

For some ex-Labour loyalists, backing the Greens feels like reclaiming what they see as the party's abandoned values.

"We're like watermelons, green on the outside, red on the inside," said Peter Gunn, 67, who has switched to Greens from Labour after 45 years.

Others were more hostile.

"I just think Labour are odious and if we have to learn the hard way of having a Reform government then so be it," said Stephen Gingell, a former Just-Stop-Oil activist out door-knocking for the Greens.

Victory may hinge on the constituency's 28 percent Muslim population.

Local imam Saleem said his normally Labour-supporting flock were turning to the Greens because of their pro-Gaza stance.

"The Asian community stuck with Labour for a long time," said Atif Nazir, 45, manager of a pastry store.

"But the people are diverting. They're changing their mind."

A defeat could further imperil Starmer who has fended off calls to resign but faces a chastening set of local elections in May that could spark leadership manoeuvrings.

Labour campaigners insist their organisational strength and long-standing presence may still prove decisive on Thursday.

But in Denton, even loyal supporters sense the ground is shifting.

"Hand on heart it'll be Reform," said Ron, 69, a former Labour councillor who still plans to vote for the party.

"Labour's majority looks huge on paper, but in an election like this that could melt away like snow in spring."

K.Tanaka--JT