The Japan Times - Stocks fall, oil climbs amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks

Shortly after the US stock market closed, US President Donald Trump announced that he was extending the ceasefire, while keeping in place a military blockade on Iran's ports.

Investors had been hoping that despite hostile rhetoric there was scope for a deal to end the Middle East war and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments.

But doubts mounted about the prospects for talks being organized by Pakistan -- at least in the very near term.

Iran foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamic republic knew how to "resist bullying," posting on X that the US blockade of Iranian ports constitutes "an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire."

Vice President JD Vance was expected to lead the US delegation to Islamabad, but as of Tuesday afternoon, he had yet to depart.

Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark, finished up 3.1 percent at $98.48 a barrel, having surged the previous day after Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street's main stock indices rose as trading got underway in New York but then dipped lower, ending the day at session lows as doubts mounted about the talks.

The broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent.

Europe's main equity markets also ended the day down, with both London and Paris shedding more than one percent. Asian markets closed higher.

"Investor sentiment remained cautious due to uncertainty around the Iran ceasefire," said market analyst Axel Rudolph at investing and trading platform IG.

Despite the uncertainty, investors aren't anticipating the worst either.

"Oil prices remained below $100 a barrel which suggests cautious optimism that the Middle East conflict won't intensify," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

"However, the longer oil remains in the 90s (dollar per barrel) range... the higher the chance of an inflationary shock and a wobble to global economic activity," he said.

Data early Tuesday showed better-than-expected US March retail sales even as energy prices began to hit consumers.

Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro, said the data "echoes what we heard from the big banks last week, with management teams largely pointing to a resilient consumer despite soaring gas prices and a barrage of geopolitically charged headlines."

Investors were also following the confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, Trump's choice to lead the Federal Reserve, for indications on the direction of US interest rates in the coming months, as the world's largest economy faces inflation risks and headwinds to growth.

Warsh told an occasionally tense confirmation hearing that he would not be controlled by the president, while also fielding questions about his wealth.

"The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so," Warsh said.

- Key figures around 2015 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 3.1 percent at $98.48 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.8 percent at $92.13 a barrel

New York - Dow Jones: DOWN 0.6 percent at 49,149.38 (close)

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,064.01 (close)

New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 24,259.96 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.1 percent at 10,498.09 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 1.1 percent at 8,235.72 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.6 percent at 24,270.87 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.9 percent at 59,349.17 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 26,487.48 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 4,085.08 (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1749 from $1.1788 on Monday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3511 from $1.3535

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.25 yen from 158.81 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.96 pence from 87.09 pence

burs-jmb

S.Fujimoto--JT