The Japan Times - Catholic Church's direction in the balance as conclave looms

A total of 133 "Princes of the Church" will meet on Wednesday to elect from among their number a successor to Pope Francis, who died on April 21 aged 88.

At issue is whether the new pontiff will follow the popular Argentine's progressive line or whether the Holy See will pivot to a more conservative traditionalist.

Francis, an energetic reformer from Buenos Aires, ran the Church for 12 years and appointed 80 percent of the current cardinal electors.

Representing 70 countries across five continents, the group is the largest and the most international ever, and many of the cardinals do not know each other.

Some experts say the progressive camp will have the edge, seeking a pope that will follow in Francis's footsteps and energise his supporters.

But others warn no-one can predict how voting will go once the cardinals are shut inside the Sistine Chapel.

Vatican affairs specialist Marco Politi told AFP that the conclave could be "the most spectacular in 50 years".

- 'Calm the waters' -

Cardinals met on Monday morning for the latest in a series of preparatory meetings, so-called general congregations, and will gather again in the afternoon.

All cardinals are invited to these, not just those under 80 who are eligible to vote in conclave, taking the opportunity to discuss the issues that will face Francis's successor.

"Nobody campaigns, for crying out loud. That would be extraordinarily stupid and indiscreet, and improper and counterproductive," said Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York.

"But you just want to get to know folks, and it works well," he said on his own podcast.

The cardinals will vote once on the first day and then, on subsequent days, twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon until one candidate has a two-thirds majority -- 89 votes.

They will inform the outside world of the outcome by burning their ballots in a stove in the chapel.

The chimney will emit black smoke if no-one has been elected, white if there is a new pope.

On Monday morning, technicians installed red curtains on the balcony of St Peter's Basilica, where the new pontiff will make his first appearance.

Among the pilgrims and sightseers who gathered in the square on Monday, opinions varied widely about who could or should take over.

"Maybe more of Pope Francis than Pope Benedict," said German visitor Aurelius Lie, 36.

"As long as he's not too conservative (and) influenced by modern political leaders -- (Giorgia) Meloni, (Donald) Trump," he said, referring to the Italian prime minister and the US president.

"Maybe the church will be thinking: 'We need a tough pope now to deal with these people.' But their terms will end in a couple of years."

But Canadian priest Justin Pulikunnel did not hide his frustration at the direction Francis tried to take the Church, seeking a return to more traditional leadership.

"Well, I hope and I pray that the new pope will kind of be a source of unity in the Church and kind of calm the waters down after almost a dozen years of destabilisation and ambiguity," he said on Sunday.

- 'Changing world' -

The conclave begins on Wednesday afternoon and could continue for days, weeks or even months -- although both Francis and Benedict -- who was pope from 2005 until his resignation in 2013 -- were elected within two days.

Italy's Pietro Parolin, who was secretary of state under Francis, is one of the favourites, as is Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.

Among the so-called "papabili" are also Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Hungary's conservative Peter Erdo.

Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako of Iraq told reporters before Monday's meetings that he wanted "a pastor, a father who preserves the unity of the Church and the integrity of the faith but who also knows the challenges of today".

"The world is always changing. Every day there is news. The pope must read the signs of the times to have the right answer and not be closeted in his palace."

burs-ar/dc/gil

M.Saito--JT